What data is used for the accident prediction model?
The Estonian Road Administration is a government agency whose main tasks are organizing the road maintenance of national roads, planning the mobility of people and vehicles, and ensuring traffic safety.
In 2018, there were 1,469 traffic accidents with human casualties in Estonia, in which 67 people died and 1,832 were injured. The number of road accidents with fatalities has fluctuated between 1,300 and 1,500 since 2010.
The current problem is that while the number of fatalities in road accidents has decreased over time, the rate of said decline has slowed down. The slowing down of the number of fatalities and road deaths suggests that further expansion of existing preventive measures will not deliver better results, and new ways of preventing accidents and fatalities need to be explored. There is currently no precise knowledge of which factors affect the occurrence and severity of road accidents, and to what extent. In addition, it is not clear whether the amount of data available today, and their quality and technical capabilities, are sufficient for predicting accidents using a road accident model. Addressing these issues is essential for knowledge-based planning of road safety prevention activities.